ORIGIN REPORT - ETHIOPIA

The 2025/26 harvest is approaching completion across Ethiopia, and we are now entering the main shipping window for washed coffees, with naturals expected to follow next month. Drawing on insights from our supplier partners on the ground, we would like to share an update about the current crop and evolving market conditions. 
 

Shipping 

Ethiopia’s proximity to the Iran war may increase the risk of transport disruption in key shipping routes through the Red Sea. In addition, geopolitical developments within the region remain an area to watch. Emerging conflict between Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea around the Gulf, alongside renewed tension in the Tigray Region after the Tigray War in 2020-2022, are elevating political risks. 

From a logistics perspective, fuel scarcity, reduced container availability and lower vessel frequency has led to extended transit schedules and potential for additional surcharges. Despite these challenges, coffee continues to ship, albeit with some delays.  

In the current environment, the use of GrainPro liners is strongly advised to help preserve quality during extended voyages. While it is difficult to predict how conditions may evolve, we remain hopeful for stability and minimal disruption as the season progresses. 

Pricing & Market Dynamics 

Minimum export prices set by the Ethiopian Coffee and Tea Authority at the start of the year remained at an elevated level above market. Compounding this, The Oromia Regional State introduced a 5% levy on all coffee purchased and prepared for export within the state, impacting over 4,000 producers. The levy, coupled with high cherry price, fuel scarcity, and difficulties in obtaining bank financing, has contributed to delays in inland stock movement. Producers face higher burdens to move coffee to mills and to Addis Ababa ahead of exporting.   

In response, the government as of mid-March has decreased weekly minimum price for natural coffee, as well as urging exporters against holding stock for an extended period. This is an effort to encourage exporters to increase shipments and generate foreign currency. 
 

Quality Outlook 

This season is seeing a shift towards natural processing. Due to high cherry pricing, exporters have purchased fewer cherries for washed production. At the same time, smallholder producers are holding onto home-processed naturals stocks, in the hope of local prices returning to 2025 levels. 

On a positive note, overall quality is anticipated to improve compared with last season, supported by desirable climate conditions and careful processing practices. 

For washed coffee, lower throughput at washing stations has allowed for greater time and attention per lot. As a result, we are seeing washed quality improvements across both specialty and commercial grades compared to last season, although many specialty lots have already been committed to buyers. Washed coffees from the Limou region in particular are showing bright acidity and refined sweetness. 
 

Natural coffees have also benefited from favourable harvesting conditions, with dry weather during picking and drying contributing to fewer defects and cleaner Grade 4’s and 5’s profiles across most regions. The continued rise in home-processing offers greater flexibility for producers, though it may introduce some variability in handling and final cup outcomes.